EUR/USD Wave Analysis: Local Bearish Outlook
The big down trend of EUR/USD started on July 2008 and formed a 3-wave structure plotted with yellow lines on the chart below. However, for the 2nd year already we have been witnessing a sideways move with a bullish shift that could be considered as a correction subwave within the 3rd bearish impulse wave on a monthly chart.
This correction on a smaller weekly time frame could be estimated as the 1st impulse bullish wave in progress (marked by a grey line). Since a weekly chart does not provide us too much data on the current situation, we have to switch to a bit smaller time frame to study its enclosure.
EUR on a 3-day time frame has built a flat 5-wave structure and is constructing the 5th bullish wave now.
A daily time frame could be used to have a closer look at the enclosed subwaves of the 5th wave. EUR has completed the 1st impulse wave up and is making the 2nd bearish correction wave now to be followed by the 3rd impulse up.
Within the 2nd correction wave down of the daily time frame we could see an enclosed 3-wave structure on a smaller 4-hour chart with the 1st impulse down and the 2nd correction up completed (these waves are drawn with blue lines). We expect the 3rd bearish impulse on a 4-hour time frame.
If the 3rd wave down on a 4-hour chart has really started already, we could see its inner structure on a smaller 1-hour time frame. Its waves are shown with lime lines. After the 1st impulse down and the adequate 2nd bullish correction the 3rd bearish impulse to be followed.