Oil Price Fall
Today price of brent oil is below USD50/barrel. What is oil trend?
Oil Price Monthly Chart
Oil traders witnessed 2 historical peaks on Brent price chart in 2008 and 2012. However, the strong growth of Brent Market started more than a decade ago. In January 2002 the fair price for 1 barrel was quoted at USD20. That was the starting point of a Monthly up trend. Have a look at the Monthly chart. The Monthly waves are shown with aquamarine lines. In the first impulse A wave of the trend that ran six years the barrel’s price went up sevenfold by 2008. After the mighty A we had the adequately potent B correction that took six months to adjust from USD140 down to USD40. The momentum C wave continued three years but gained USD120 only caught to be truncated. However, its termination on the Monthly chart became evident in January 2015 when the price broke the slope channel (see the blue dashed line on the chart) that protected the previous Monthly up trend. Then it came obvios that the forming down move is nothing else but a new momentum A of the new down trend.
Oil Price Weekly Chart
The A wave of the Monthly chart is a structure of the Weekly subwaves that are shown with the grey lines corresponding to A, B and C waves of the Weekly chart. And now we are having another correction wave that is marked as 4. We think that the current move could be considered as the fourth wave of correction within the Weekly chart. Of course, some people think that this move is a start of the new up trend. But we cannot agree until this correction will show its strength on the Monthly chart. So we expect the down trend to continue in the fifth wave of the Weekly chart.
Brent Oil 8-Hour Chart
The rising structure on the H8 chart is drawn with the chocolate lines. We have done A, B, C and now are falling within either the fourth corrective wave or making the new A wave down.